Preseason polls mean nothing
The 2011 college football season opens Thursday (9/1). The preseason coaches’ poll was released back on August 4 with the AP poll coming out August 21. Both ranked the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 1 to open the season. The Sooners will start out top-ranked in the AP college football poll for the 10th time, more than any school in the nation. However, in stealing a line from the Wizard of Oz, “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.”
What I mean by that is preseason No. 1 rankings don’t mean all that much. Note that last year’s BCS championship game featured Auburn beating Oregon 22-19. If you were a client of mine last year, you know that I predicted Auburn to win the 'ship early in the year and won all 7 games we bet on them against the spread. However, the Tigers opened the 2010 season ranked just 23rd in the coaches’ poll (one-third of the BCS rankings) and 22nd in the AP poll, while Oregon began play in 2010 ranked No. 11 in both polls. Note that Florida opened the 2010 season No. 3 (coaches’) and No. 4 (AP), yet finished unranked in either poll by year’s end with an 8-5 record while Texas (4th in the coaches’ and 5th in the AP), finished the 2010 season with a sub-.500 record of 5-7. Leaving me to think, so much for the coaches’ or writers’ having any special insight.
Further proving this point is the following, which was reported the day the AP preseason poll was released. The average final ranking for a preseason AP No. 1 team over the last 10 seasons was 4.2 while the average AP preseason ranking for the last 10 BCS national champions (including the 2004 Trojans, who have since had that title vacated) was 6.7. Note that last year’s champ (Auburn) opens 19th in the coaches’ poll, the lowest for a defending champ since USA Today began administrating the poll in 1991. Think the Tigers are not getting enough respect? Note that "respected" preseason college football "touts" predict Auburn to finish 5th in the six-team SEC West in 2011 while another has the Tigers finishing dead-last. Someone has it wrong.
Here at Team KOB, we have our own preseason power rankings and our detailed preparation has allowed Ken O’Brien and his clients to get off to a winning starts each and every September. While others (including the oddsmakers) are “feeling their way” through college football’s opening month, fast starts are the norm, not the exception here at Team KOB. We know all about “the tortoise and the hare” but that does not mean there is something wrong with starting fast. Other than Usain Bolt, no one starts ‘faster,’ or for that matter finishes ‘stronger,’ than Team KOB!
Posted by Ken O'Brien on Aug 29, 2011 01:18:07 pm
