I had the opportunity to watch a few of their scrimmages, and I started thinking of all the NFL teams that wasted their money and future on some of the worst picks in NFL draft history. The trials and tribulations of signal callers like Ryan Leaf, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Klingler, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith, Heath Shuler and Andre Ware was resonating in my memory banks as I contemplated whether or not Luck was worth backing up the Brinks Truck. In the last 25 years or so, I can only think of two quarterbacks drafted first overall, who actually lived up to the hype. They were John Elway in 1983 and Peyton Manning in 1998.
When evaluating the quarterbacks in the last 25 years, I can’t think of one that holds the promise Andrew Luck has, and that includes Manning and Elway. I implore anyone to tell me what he can’t do? He’s a little young and could use more reps, but the only thing you can’t teach him is experience. Stanford boasts a good team, but it’s not like he’s throwing the ball to Julio Jones or AJ Green.
As players go through the draft process, they are picked apart by scouts. If it’s not your arm strength or athleticism; it’s your wonderlic score or your footwork. What’s interesting though is the lack of success of more than half the quarterbacks drafted in the top ten, hasn’t deterred NFL GM’s from opening up their wallet like a new daddy at Christmas. Last year Sam Bradford got 50 million guaranteed, and the year before Matthew Stafford got 41 million. I think Luck is worth the money, whereas others have had too much risk for my blood.
Pedigree plays a big part in this, as it did for both Elway and Manning. Elway’s dad Jack played quarterback at Washington in the 1950’s before compiling a 61-39 head coaching record at San Jose State and Stanford, and everyone knows Archie Manning’s story. Andrew Lucks dad Oliver is the current Athletic Director at West Virginia, and former Commissioner of NFL Europe. He was also a second round pick in the NFL, and played four years for the Oilers.
Technically the biggest improvement for Luck from year one to year two has been his ability to check off and throw the ball to many different receivers ala Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. So far this year he has thrown the ball to 16 different receivers and thrown touchdowns to 10. Luck also has awesome pocket presence and escapability. He has that natural feel of when to step up, when to slide and when to run for your life. He had two 50 yard runs and racked up over 400 yards rushing this year, finishing as Stanford’s second leading rusher next to halfback Stepfan Taylor. For the number crunchers, he finished the year with 28 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 166.1 quarterback rating and was sacked only 5 times. Plus, he set a Stanford record winning 11 games.
At the end of the day, football is a very complicated game for quarterbacks, and it’s a big bonus if you have one who can master the thousand page playbook, and know the tendencies of every defense on your schedule. The experts say quarterbacks have to be smart, well anyone that goes to Stanford already qualifies and when you add in he was co-valedictorian in high school, that box is checked.
While Cam Newton did win the Heisman based on his pure explosiveness and an incredible season, Luck is the best quarterback prospect since John Elway or Peyton Manning. His footwork is absolutely flawless. Check him out on screen passes and you’ll see what I mean. Many thought he would struggle with Toby Gerhart leaving for the pros, but Stanford is actually superior this year to last, mostly because of Luck.
Stanford’s only loss (53-31) came to the undefeated and BCS title game bound Oregon Ducks, a game Stanford was winning 21-3, before being ambushed by a world class Oregon Ducks offense. My insiders cashed in big time, as we were all over it, but the loss was hardly Luck’s fault as Oregon rushed for a staggering 388 yards in the game.
So many of you are figuring that this correlates to me picking Stanford in the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech, but the people that know me, know I would never make a pick this early. Feel free to call me in the days leading up to the major bowl games for my selections. As you know you’ll never speak to a salesperson, as I have none, you’ll speak to me directly 1-800-662-2100
Everyone wants "Luck" on their Side
I remember when the college football preseason rankings came out and I started making my picks for the season. The buzz amongst my top inside contacts was about the young stud quarterback from Stanford that few people knew about. Well, people had heard about him, but no one predicted what I did, and that was that Andrew Luck was the best pro prospect in all of college football. I told everyone that outside of the Oregon game, they should run the table, and the biggest reason was of course…Andrew Luck.
Posted by Ken O'Brien on Dec 24, 2010 03:06:48 pm
